Tuesday, 12 July 2016
BEIJING LOSES BATTLE OVER SOUTH CHINA....
A tribunal in The Hague has rejected
China's claims to economic rights across
large swathes of the South China Sea.
"There was no legal basis for China to claim
historic rights to resources within the sea
areas falling within the 'nine-dash line'," the
court said.
This was a reference to a demarcation line
on a 1947 map of the sea, which is rich in
energy, mineral and fishing resources.
In the 497-page ruling, judges also found
that Chinese law enforcement patrols had
risked colliding with Philippine fishing
vessels in parts of the sea and caused
irreparable damage to coral reefs with
construction work.
China, which boycotted the case brought by
the Philippines, has said it will not abide by
any ruling.
Its state media had already delivered their
verdict well before the announcement in The
Hague.
"Arbitration Invalid," declared the front
page of the China Daily newspaper on
Tuesday morning, many hours before the
actual result.
"Beijing will not step back, and will not
allow what it sees as a wolf-pack scheme to
succeed," it had earlier warned.
A pre-emptive PR campaign has been
ramping up for weeks, insisting that China is
in the right and the case is an attack on its
sovereignty.
The narrative being pushed strongly is that
China is not the aggressor, it is the victim
merely trying to defend its national interests
against those who seek to undermine and
contain it (by which it means the United
States).
The US comes into this despite not taking a
position on the individual territorial disputes
(China, Vietnam, The Philippines, Taiwan,
Malaysia and Indonesia all lay claim to parts
of the sea).
It has, however, been carrying out what it
calls 'freedom of navigation patrols' through
the waters, effectively rejecting China's claim
to territorial waters around its artificial
islands.
It is also a treaty ally of the Philippines.
Admiral Harry Harris, head of the US Pacific
Command, has previously warned that China
is militarizing the South China Sea. "You'd
have to believe in a flat earth to think
otherwise," he said.
The Philippines government brought the case
in 2013 to challenge China's claim to
maritime rights around the artificial islands
it has created, and the validity of the "nine-
dash line", which draws a boundary around
about 90% of the sea and claiming it for
China.
Tuesday's ruling will not determine the issue
of sovereignty over these features - who has
a legitimate claim - but it is nevertheless the
first time any legal challenge has been
brought in the South China Sea, and the first
test of whether international law will be
respected.
The decision is legally-binding but without a
body to enforce it the next steps will likely
be determined by the respective parties
themselves.
There are several measures China could take
in the short term if it chooses to up the
ante, including building on the disputed
Scarborough Shoal reef, which is closer to
Manila than its other outposts.
It could also attempt to drag the Philippines
navy ship Sierra Madre from its position on
Second Thomas Shoal, or declare an Air
Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the
area.
The PLA Navy has been carrying out live-
firing drills in the sea in the run-up to this
judgement routine it insists, just a
coincidence of timing.
But it may also see an opportunity for
dialogue.
The Philippines has a new president, who
despite threatening (during his election
campaign) to ride a jet-ski out to confront
the Chinese positions, has recently indicated
he may be open to talks with Beijing.
What is clear is that this ruling is by no
means the end of this issue - the rising
tensions in the South China Sea are from
resolved.
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